This entry was posted on
Thursday, August 14th, 2008 at
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under It’s War! It’s Legal! It’s Lovely!.
Strafor – The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power: The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the invasion did not shift the balance of power. The balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public. They did that Aug. 8… The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status. This is not something that just happened – it has been unfolding ever since Putin took power, and with growing intensity in the past five years.